Analyzing the meteoric rise of 49ers Brock Purdy and advancing how we evaluate NFL quarterbacks

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Let's jump in a time machine back to 2015 -- Sept. 29, 2015 to be exact, the day after a win over the on In that contest, completed 24 of 35 pa ses for 335 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions en route to Green Bay's 38-28 victory.Relatively new-on-the-scene football analytics website Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave Rodgers' performance an overall grade of -0.8, the 16th-highest among all quarterbacks that week. That -0.8 equates to a PFF Deni Avdija Jersey grade of 67.0 today.When that PFF grade dropped, it left Twitter's collective mouth agape. How in the world did Rodgers, who threw for 335 yards and completed nearly 70% of his pa ses with five touchdowns (!) and no interceptions earn a grade in the negatives! Ri-dic-u-lous was the general consensus. The backlash was so rampant, Ben Stockwell, who still works at PFF as , wrote an article defending (see: explaining) the justification for Rodgers' average grade.In it, Stockwell pinpointed a fumble by Rodgers and a dropped interception by a Chiefs defender as the key grade-lowering components while mentioning three of Rodgers' five scores came on "expected" throws in which his wideouts did the heavy lifting to morph those plays from simple completions to touchdowns.As someone who'd instantly taken a liking to PFF's overarching idea and gravitated toward and agreed with its granular approach to analyzing football, this Rodgers grading controversy felt like what should've been a watershed moment. After reading Stockwell's piece, PFF's stance felt unshakeable. The rationale made perfect sense. And while it swayed the opinions of many, not everyone was convinced. The point of this story isn't to insinuate that I viewed then or currently view PFF grades as gospel. It's meant to advocate for what PFF pushed to the forefront of football analysis -- evaluating players by distilling what each did individually on a given play.Because now, eight years after that -- maybe only to me -- fateful late September Tuesday, we're in the throes of a heated, widespread debate on how to properly evaluate quarterbacks. Except this time, it's not a former first-round, future Hall of Fame pa ser at the center of the discu sion. It's last year's "Mr. Irrelevant," who's not so irrelevant anymore, quarterback .Purdy's the current leader in some signature categories -- quarterback rating (123.1) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (9:0). He trails only in yards per attempt (9.7 to 9.3) and is second in completion percentage at 72.1%. Despite all that, there are plenty of analysts -- including myself -- who aren't overly enamored Cassius Winston Jersey with Purdy himself as a pa ser. Kyle Shanahan's brilliant play-designing talent coupled with an embarra sment of riches at receiver, tight end, and along the offensive line are cited as the main drivers of the absolute wagon that is the 49ers offense. Actually, I shouldn't write I'm not enamored with Purdy. It's more correct to say, like Rodgers on three of those touchdown pa ses in 2015, Purdy is mostly operating "as we would expect" any starting quarterback to given what has been presented to him within San Francisco's attack.And the results that materialize from a quarterback playing "as expected" hinge on the Jerian Grant Jersey offensive environment. It's when a quarterback functions either "below" or "above" the scheme that they should be subject to negative or positive marks on their evaluation.How we view quarterbacks is kind of a catch 22. Quarterback is accepted as the most important position on the field, but a quarterback's statistics are much contingent upon the performance of teammates. For example, during the 2022 regular season, the 49ers averaged the most yards after the catch per reception (6.62) in football. Entering Week 6, they're fourth in that category at 5.71 yards. Of course, leading a wideout (or failing to do so) can impact YAC, but in general, what pa s catchers do with the ball in their hands is completely out of the quarterback's control.Purdy's Big-Time Throw rate (the highest degree of difficulty throws with the highest value) of 2.0% in 2022 was not only very low, it was lower than his Turnover-Worthy Play rate of 2.7%. Credit to Purdy -- thus far in 2023, he's increased his BTT rate to 4.7% and his TWP rate has only slightly increased to 3.1%. Both rank in the Top 15 in each category, which is damn respectable but shouldn't incite serious MVP consideration as the raw numbers would strongly suggest. NFL fans are smarter today about the nuances of the game than at any other point in football history. We can thank technological and analytical advancements, and social media provides an enormous platform to di seminate those advancements to a larger audience than ever before.We know sacks aren't the only way to measure a pa s rusher's production. We know throwing the football is more efficient than running the football. We know wins aren't a quarterback stat. Pick Six Newsletter Crafted By The Best NFL Experts Get the day's big stories + fun stuff you love like mock drafts, picks and power rankings. I agree to receive the "Pick Six Newsletter" and marketing communications, updates, special offers (including partner offers), and other information from CBS Sports and the Paramount family of companies. By pre sing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the and acknowledge Paramount's . Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe. Thanks for signing up! Keep an eye on your inbox. Sorry! There was an error Anzejs Pasecniks Jersey proce sing your subscription. What should come next is widespread acceptance that not every big statistical game from a quarterback automatically means that quarterback played at an elite level. Now, of course, a pa ser can "win" with his mind by finding the open receiver in a flash or rapidly moving through his reads to get to the third or fourth target in his progre sion. And Purdy seemingly does those things well. But with how quickly defenders get to the quarterback today and how fast cornerbacks close throwing windows, every offensive coordinator attempts to "scheme" a pa s catcher open on the quarterback's first read. And more than ever, that first read is a short, naturally high-percentage throw.Per PFF, the median for first-read throws league-wide currently sits at 67%, and Purdy has the fifth-highest first-read throw rate at 73%. If Admiral Schofield Jersey a receiver is "schemed open" or simply uses athleticism to separate, and the quarterback throws accurately to him, it can't be viewed as a special play made by the pa ser. Those plays are expected.And the vast majority of throws each game for all quarterbacks -- not just Purdy -- are "as expected." It's the errant to s behind a wideout on a shallow cro s, the perfectly placed pa s on a vertical down the sideline over the corner and in front of the safety, or the late throw over the middle into traffic that separate the bad from the good, the good from the great, and the great from the elite at the quarterback position.